2026 economic trends include AI momentum, some economic slowdowns, and high job retention rates.
The 25th annual Milwaukee Biz Times 2026 Economic Trends Breakfast brought together more than 500 leaders in business, academics, and government to share insights on what’s shaping the economy in 2026. Here are the top takeaways from the event.
The U.S. economy gets a “6 out of 10”
A UW-Madison economist rated the current economy a “6 out of 10,” citing low but rising unemployment, productivity-driven GDP growth, and elevated but stable inflation near 3%. The S&P 500 rose 16% in 2025, with AI contributing to most returns, growth, and capital expenditures — 75%, 80%, and 90% respectively. However, rising tariffs and affordability challenges are dampening consumer sentiment, despite otherwise stable macroeconomic indicators.
Labor trends: “Job hugging” replaces the great resignation
Employee engagement is at a 10‑year low, yet retention is high. Workers are staying put — what Google calls “job hugging.” One executive noted the decline rates for job offers — particularly in white-collar roles — have surged from 4–6% to around 30%.
AI momentum will drive 2026 productivity and changes in workforce
AI and advanced technologies are powering a major economic transition expected to continue driving efficiency gains throughout 2026. A Fortune 50 CFO noted how AI is improving productivity, reducing costs, and transforming finance functions. At his company, over 50 individual BOTs now perform measurable transactional work. Each BOT has an employee ID so productivity can be tracked, just like other human roles.
On the downside, AI-driven efficiencies are making it harder for recent college graduates to find jobs, as automation reshapes entry-level roles and traditional career paths.
Hot sectors to watch in 2026
Growth areas include life sciences, defense, energy infrastructure, food, and food service equipment. Meanwhile, heavy truck manufacturing, mining, and auto manufacturing are seeing slowdowns.
How CLA can help with 2026 economic trends
CLA has deep industry experience in many of the hot sectors and also is helping organizations of all sizes do more with AI. Follow our weekly CLA Outlook insights to stay informed as economic trends change.