CLA Outlook — Key Insights for Sound Financial Strategies
Take steps to prepare for changing scenarios.
June 23 Weekly Insights
FOMC votes no change in interest rates and forecasts two rate cuts in 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% during its June 18 meeting, while also signaling two more rate cuts are likely by year-end. Committee Chairman Jerome Powell said tariffs have increased economic uncertainty, the labor market remains solid, and released the Fed’s updated economic outlook, which shows GDP growth slowing to 1.4%.
High quality fixed income looks attractive and serves as a buffer to equity market volatility
So far this year, yields on U.S. treasuries with maturities of 2-to-10-years have decreased about 22-42 basis points, while yields on both shorter and longer maturities have remained virtually unchanged. The yield curve tends to steepen while the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy and flatten while the Fed is tightening.
Retail sales, consumer sentiment show softness; personal income expected to show growth
Consumption accounts for approximately two-thirds of GDP, so economists closely watch consumer spending. In May, retail sales fell 0.9% while consumer sentiment remained stuck at a relatively low level. Personal income is expected to increase by a healthy 0.4% in May, while personal spending is expected to rise a modest 0.2%.
Develop strong financial strategies
Tune in to the second-quarter session of the CLA Outlook as we discuss timely topics around policy, the economy, and year-to-date market performance.
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