Wealth Advisory

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Individual tax returns filed annually

JULY 27 WEEKLY INSIGHTS

Opportunity Zones 2.0 moves into focus as investors enter the 180-day planning window

  • The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) permanently extended the Opportunity Zone program, creating what many investors refer to as Qualified Opportunity Zones 2.0. Beginning next year, eligible investments will benefit from a new structure that includes tax deferral, basis step-ups, and the potential for tax-free appreciation after a long-term holding period. 
  • Now that we are within 180 days of the January 1, 2027 effective date, investors with realized capital gains may want to begin evaluating Qualified Opportunity Fund opportunities and planning for potential capital commitments under the new rules. 
  • Under QOZ 2.0, eligible gains invested in Qualified Opportunity Funds on or after January 1 will receive a five-year tax deferral period, a 10% basis increase after five years, and potential exclusion of future appreciation after a 10-year holding period. 
  • The permanent extension of the program provides greater certainty for investors, fund sponsors, and developers, allowing Opportunity Zones to become a more strategic component of long-term tax and investment planning. 
  • Connect with your CLA tax and wealth team to learn about opportunity zone investments. 
    Source: OBBBA 

Small business confidence rebounds, a leading signal of improving economic momentum

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 97.4 in June, a sign that small business owners are becoming more confident about the outlook for business conditions, reversing a trend of lower sentiment that started with the beginning of the Iran conflict. 
  • Investors closely watch the NFIB survey because it is considered a leading indicator, meaning it can provide clues about where the economy may be headed before changes appear in economic data. The June rebound could indicate improving economic activity later in 2026 if optimism translates into increased hiring and investment. 
  • Leading indicators are data points that tend to change before the broader economy does. Examples include the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, new orders for manufactured goods, building permits, and consumer confidence surveys. 
  • By contrast, lagging indicators confirm trends that are already underway and include the unemployment rate, corporate earnings, and GDP growth, which typically reflect economic conditions after they have developed. 
  • While lagging indicators help validate economic trends, leading indicators such as the NFIB survey can offer investors an earlier signal of potential changes in the business cycle. 
    Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)  

The road to lower rates may be longer than markets previously expected

  • Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted dramatically in recent months. At the beginning of March, markets were pricing a 93% probability that the federal funds rate would end the year below the current 3.50% – 3.75% range, while today markets are assigning roughly an 87% probability that rates will finish the year above the current range, reflecting a significant move toward a higher-for-longer interest rate outlook. 
  • Current market pricing suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates unchanged at its July meeting, as policymakers continue to assess incoming inflation and labor market data before making additional policy adjustments. 
  • The shift in expectations reflects a combination of persistent inflation pressures, resilient economic activity, and a Federal Reserve that has signaled a willingness to keep policy restrictive until inflation shows further progress toward its long-term target. 
  • Importantly, market-implied probabilities are not forecasts or guarantees — these expectations are based on current information and can change quickly as new economic data, inflation reports, employment figures, and Federal Reserve communications alter these rate probabilities. 
    Source: CME Group 
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