Strategic decisions in CRE, like fantasy football, require smart drafting, adaptability, and trusted advisory for long-term success.
Few things match the thrill of fantasy football draft day — scouting depth charts, imagining the perfect roster.
In commercial real estate (CRE), it’s not much different.
This year feels like a fresh draft board, with sectors rising and falling in investor rankings.
- First-round picks? Multifamily remains the No. 1 overall. Transaction activity is picking up in high-growth metros, signaling renewed confidence.
- Risky picks? Office. While many are still passing, prime submarkets are showing signs of stabilization, potential sleeper breakouts.
- Middle-round value? Retail. Though transaction volume is softer, necessity-driven and experiential formats are proving steady.
- The high-upside gamble? Hospitality. Luxury and experiential segments are booming, while mid-tier and economy hotels face headwinds.
Drafting sets the tone, but winning takes week-to-week strategy.
Playing the right matchups in commercial real estate
Fantasy goes beyond who you drafted. It’s also about setting your lineup wisely. You start players when the matchup favors them, and sometimes you have to bench the stars. CRE feels the same this year.
- Industrial has cooled. After years of runaway growth, leasing activity has slowed and new deliveries have tapered. But in submarkets near ports or major highways, fundamentals may still rack up points.
- Retail is matchup-dependent. Grocery-anchored centers and health care-supported formats are reliable, while centers without strong anchors are hit-or-miss.
- Office could be the ultimate matchup play. In top locations, vacancy is far lower than in commodity space, making the best assets look like stars while the rest of the sector continues to struggle.
Working through “injuries” and bye weeks
Every fantasy season brings setbacks: injuries to star players, bye weeks that thin the roster. Fantasy managers who adapt are the ones who win championships.
In CRE, adaptability means rebalancing. Industrial, once the top performer, now looks like a star nursing an injury — still valuable, but not at full strength. Office, especially outside prime submarkets, feels like a player who’s always “questionable” but rarely delivers. Retail continues to grind out steady results, like a dependable flex option.
While commercial lending hasn’t fully rebounded, the stage is set for a potential Fed rate cut. That could jump-start transaction activity and refinancing momentum. With capital still sitting on the sidelines, investors may soon have the backup options they need to cover those bye weeks and unexpected setbacks.
Wins, losses, and the long season ahead
Just as fantasy football champions rely on smart drafting, strategic matchups, and deep bench strength, CRE investors need a trusted advisor to navigate the long season ahead.
Whether you're building your portfolio, rebalancing assets, or scouting new opportunities, CLA’s real estate team brings deep industry knowledge, data-driven insights, and hands-on experience across asset classes. We help you uncover hidden value, avoid costly missteps, and make the moves that lead to championships.